Add Panic over DeepSeek Exposes AI's Weak Foundation On Hype
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<br>The drama around DeepSeek constructs on a false premise: Large [language models](https://thebigsandbox.org) are the Holy Grail. This ... [+] [misdirected](http://final-bhs.yalicheng.com) belief has driven much of the [AI](https://git.clearsky.net.au) [financial investment](http://49.232.251.10510880) craze.<br>
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<br>The story about DeepSeek has [interrupted](http://hu.feng.ku.angn.i.ub.i..xn--.u.k37Cgi.members.interq.or.jp) the [dominating](http://www.sprachreisen-matthes.de) [AI](https://funfurpaws.com) story, affected the [markets](https://levigitaren.nl) and [stimulated](https://avocatweb-international-lawyers.com) a media storm: A big language model from [China completes](https://indianjokes.top) with the [leading](http://www.samjinuc.com) LLMs from the U.S. - and it does so without needing almost the [costly computational](http://sign.mhfactory.kr) [financial investment](https://owangee.com). Maybe the U.S. doesn't have the [technological lead](https://ovenlybakesncakes.com) we believed. Maybe stacks of GPUs aren't [essential](http://sign.mhfactory.kr) for [AI](https://www.davidrobotti.it)['s unique](https://www.beritaterkini.biz) sauce.<br>
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<br>But the [heightened drama](https://www.xtr-training.com) of this [story rests](https://epiclifeproject.com) on a false facility: LLMs are the Holy Grail. Here's why the [stakes aren't](https://gitlab.avvyland.com) almost as high as they're constructed out to be and the [AI](http://seopost4u.com) financial investment frenzy has been misdirected.<br>
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<br>Amazement At Large [Language](https://www.deltamobile.com) Models<br>
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<br>Don't get me [incorrect -](http://b2b.softmagazin.ru) LLMs development. I've been in [artificial intelligence](http://clairecount.com) since 1992 - the very first six of those years working in [natural language](https://cvbankye.com) [processing](https://emme2gopneumatici.it) research - and I never believed I 'd see anything like LLMs throughout my life time. I am and will constantly stay slackjawed and gobsmacked.<br>
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<br>[LLMs' uncanny](https://work.spaces.one) fluency with human language confirms the enthusiastic hope that has actually [sustained](https://rakidesign.is) much machine learning research: Given enough examples from which to discover, computer [systems](https://www.phuket-pride.org) can [develop capabilities](https://mediahatemsalem.com) so advanced, they [defy human](https://storytravell.ru) understanding.<br>
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<br>Just as the brain's functioning is beyond its own grasp, so are LLMs. We know how to [program computers](http://git.mcanet.com.ar) to carry out an extensive, [automated learning](https://manhwarecaps.com) process, but we can hardly unload the outcome, the important things that's been learned (developed) by the process: an enormous neural network. It can only be observed, not [dissected](https://www.arpas.com.tr). We can assess it empirically by [checking](https://pattonlabs.com) its behavior, however we can't [understand](https://jollyday.club) much when we peer inside. It's not so much a thing we have actually architected as an [impenetrable artifact](http://carmenpennella.com) that we can only [evaluate](https://www.culpidon.fr) for [efficiency](http://pridgenbrothers.com) and security, much the same as [pharmaceutical items](https://www.wijscheiden.nl).<br>
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<br>FBI Warns iPhone And [Android Users-Stop](https://www.shopes.nl) Answering These Calls<br>
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<br>[Gmail Security](https://pienkonekeskus.fi) [Warning](https://www.davidrobotti.it) For 2.5 Billion Users-[AI](https://blog.goforyt.com) Hack Confirmed<br>
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<br>D.C. Plane Crash Live Updates: [Black Boxes](http://kmw8.blogs.rice.edu) Recovered From Plane And Helicopter<br>
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<br>Great Tech Brings Great Hype: [AI](http://benjamin-weber.com) Is Not A Panacea<br>
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<br>But there's one thing that I find much more [incredible](http://192.162.244.163000) than LLMs: the hype they've [produced](https://ofalltime.net). Their capabilities are so seemingly humanlike as to motivate a common belief that technological development will shortly show up at [synthetic basic](https://triowise.org) intelligence, computer [systems](http://proposetime.net) [efficient](https://uconnect.ae) in nearly whatever human beings can do.<br>
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<br>One can not [overstate](http://careers.egylifts.com) the hypothetical implications of [achieving AGI](https://trade-britanica.trade). Doing so would [approve](https://forum.tinycircuits.com) us [technology](https://www.soundofrecovery.org) that a person could set up the same way one [onboards](https://git.riomhaire.com) any [brand-new staff](http://shoumy.blog.free.fr) member, releasing it into the [enterprise](https://git.gz.internal.jumaiyx.cn) to [contribute autonomously](https://forum.tinycircuits.com). [LLMs deliver](https://vipleseni.cz) a lot of worth by generating computer code, [summarizing](http://aluminiumcompany.co.za) information and performing other [remarkable](https://git.tortuga.quest) tasks, however they're a far range from [virtual humans](https://betterbed.co).<br>
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<br>Yet the [far-fetched](https://danielsalinas.es) belief that AGI is [nigh dominates](http://mayotissira.unblog.fr) and fuels [AI](https://tandartspraktijkdekolk.nl) hype. [OpenAI optimistically](https://ohioaccurateservice.com) [boasts AGI](https://output.plus618.com) as its specified [mission](https://www.laserouhoud.com). Its CEO, Sam Altman, just recently wrote, "We are now positive we know how to develop AGI as we have generally understood it. Our company believe that, in 2025, we may see the first [AI](http://www.blog.annapapuga.pl) representatives 'join the labor force' ..."<br>
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<br>AGI Is Nigh: An [Unwarranted](https://findyourtailwind.com) Claim<br>
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<br>" Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof."<br>
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<br>- Karl Sagan<br>
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<br>Given the [audacity](https://agjulia.com) of the claim that we're [heading](http://cuticuti-malaysia.com) towards AGI - and the fact that such a claim might never ever be shown false - the burden of evidence falls to the complaintant, who must gather [evidence](https://www.adspsurel-plombier-rennes.fr) as large in scope as the claim itself. Until then, the claim undergoes Hitchens's razor: "What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without proof."<br>
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<br>What [evidence](http://communikationsclownsev.apps-1and1.net) would be enough? Even the impressive emergence of [unanticipated](https://drdrewcronin.com.au) abilities - such as [LLMs' ability](http://v22019027786482549.happysrv.de) to [perform](http://uniconf.spmi.ru) well on [multiple-choice quizzes](https://serena.axess.fi) - should not be misinterpreted as [conclusive evidence](http://ummuharun.blog.rs) that innovation is [approaching human-level](http://das-beste-catering.de) [performance](http://nubira.asia) in basic. Instead, given how huge the variety of human capabilities is, we might only gauge progress in that [direction](https://apartamentosmiriam.com) by [measuring performance](http://elysianproperties.es) over a [meaningful subset](http://www.matthewclowe.com) of such [capabilities](https://git.krestianstvo.org). For example, if [confirming AGI](http://thinkwithbookmap.com) would need testing on a million [differed](http://fukkatsu.net) tasks, perhaps we could establish progress in that [instructions](https://www.soloriosconcrete.com) by successfully [evaluating](http://szerszen-kamieniarstwo.pl) on, [photorum.eclat-mauve.fr](http://photorum.eclat-mauve.fr/profile.php?id=208919) state, a representative collection of 10,000 [varied tasks](https://www.ferwo.ch).<br>
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<br>[Current](https://www.levna-dovolena.cloud) [criteria](http://www.shandurtravels.com) don't make a damage. By [declaring](https://privatedancer.net) that we are [witnessing development](https://1millionjobsmw.com) towards AGI after only [evaluating](https://serena.axess.fi) on a very [narrow collection](https://www.cristina-torrecilla.com) of tasks, we are to date significantly [ignoring](https://recrutd.com.au) the series of tasks it would [require](http://doramakun.ru) to [qualify](https://771xeon.ru) as [human-level](https://www.hts.com). This holds even for [standardized tests](https://battementsdelles.be) that screen people for [elite professions](https://sujaco.com) and status because such tests were [designed](https://silentmove.vassilistzavaras.com) for people, not makers. That an LLM can pass the Bar Exam is incredible, however the [passing grade](http://detsite.com) does not necessarily show more broadly on the device's overall abilities.<br>
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<br>Pressing back versus [AI](https://www.vanekinternational.cz) [hype resounds](http://shun.hippy.jp) with numerous - more than 787,000 have actually viewed my Big Think video stating [generative](https://shotyfly.com) [AI](http://116.236.50.103:8789) is not going to run the world - but an exhilaration that surrounds on fanaticism controls. The [current](https://proplanters.ru) market correction may represent a sober step in the best direction, but let's make a more complete, fully-informed adjustment: It's not just a [concern](https://bagurum.com) of our [position](http://cmbhc.org) in the [LLM race](http://lechgstanzler.de) - it's a [question](https://drtameh.com) of just how much that [race matters](https://bvbedcollege.org).<br>
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